Satirical map of Europe from 1877: the “Russian threat”—already...
When is Russia going to attack us? As early as 2023, according to Keith Starmer, the late British Prime Minister. Between 2028 and 2030, say the robots of Artificial Indigence (© Google). Are you kidding? We wish... On the street, it’s a different story.
It hasn’t escaped anyone’s notice—not even Googy, my cat—that there’s a unanimous consensus among European leaders, kindly echoed by the mainstream press, that a Russian attack on European soil within the next few years is a certainty, and that we must therefore urgently rearm on all fronts to be able to manfully repel the invader.
On so-called social media, this has given rise to various ironic jibes, including the observation of one naive soul wondering why the Russians aren’t attacking right now, since, obviously, Europe is still only at the beginning of its rearmament effort...
Joking aside, is there even a semblance of unity in opinion between Europe’s ruling circles and the “common folk”—those whose voices aren’t heard?
Well, the answer is no.
In an initial survey of five acquaintances from very different social backgrounds, the answer was “no” five times over: Russia won’t attack. Anne, in her sixties, from an artistic background: “No way, Russia doesn’t have the means.” François, in his thirties, a playground supervisor: “Attacking would be shooting themselves in the foot.” Thibaut, 62, a globetrotter: “No, of course not. They have other things to do.” Anita, in her fifties, a podiatrist: “Impossible. The Russian economy is in the gutter.” Frédéric, in his forties, a bookseller, with a ‘are-you-kidding-me?’ scowl: “The Russian threat only exists to sell weapons. Plus, Russia doesn’t have the means. And it has nothing to gain from invading Europe.”
To see how things play out on the “ground”—by asking the question point-blank, “Do you think Russia is going to attack Europe?”—we ventured outside the working-class neighborhoods of our previous survey, this time to gauge the views of a more middle-class audience. To do so, we headed to the outdoor seating areas at the Verschueren brasserie in Saint-Gilles and the Le Soleil bistro in central Brussels. The results? Here they are.
Charles, 46, engineer: “Well, no. You just have to see how much trouble they’re having making headway in Ukraine to be convinced.”
Greg, 47, sculptor: “Obviously not. Russia has no interest in that.”
Thelma, 20, psychology student: “I’m tempted to say no. But maybe we should be prepared.”
Lila, 21, florist: “Right now, I don’t think so. We can see that some tensions have eased. And besides, for Russia, there are too many risks. Actually, it’s not a serious possibility. And the question overlooks many other aspects of the problem.”
Ambrélie, 28, film festival coordinator: “No. That’s more a matter of belief.”
Alice, 26, film student: “I’d also say no. It’s a matter of belief—almost like telepathy.”
Ethan, Irish, 44, former assistant at the European Parliament, speaking in English: “No, just look at the stalemate in Ukraine. And Russia isn’t that powerful. Plus, it wouldn’t be very wise strategically.” He adds that, in his view, we must take into account Ukraine’s inability to sustain its military effort, as well as the interests of the military-industrial complex… All of this, he says, “has a Cold War feel to it.”
Sté, 29: “I actually think it’s Europe that’s going to attack. In a subtle way.”
Esté, 32: “No, I don’t think so. Europe is more of a tourist destination.”
Angela, 19: “...I don’t know.”
These last three say that their day job is in martial arts, with big, mischievous, sardonic grins. They’d sat down to have a drink and laugh with good friends, and here comes some weirdo, notebook in hand, asking stupid questions...
So, not again, then
In any case, this represents a very clear majority that is completely out of step with Europe’s ruling circles. We stopped at these ten people—an obviously non-representative sample—which nevertheless has the advantage of showing that, with eight of them, that’s 80% of the population who don’t believe for a second in the Russian threat.
Admittedly, there’s Angela, who checked the “don’t know” box, and Thelma, who can only say she’d like to count herself among the “no” voters, even while thinking that, perhaps, we should be prepared for it. She has her excuses—she’s only twenty—and between the two of them, that amounts to a mere 20%, to put it humorously.
But to conclude, without humor, it’s probably not a bad idea to suggest to the readers of this newsletter that they repeat the experiment among their friends and family. And then discuss it. It’s through discussion that we make progress.