Map of 41 “future post-Russian states,” as proposed by the Forum of Free Nations of Post-Russia

The strategy of dismantling Russia is nothing new. As early as 1919, in the midst of the Russian Civil War, American strategic circles proposed a plan to divide the Tsarist Empire into 23 distinct states, drawing inspiration from the Wilsonian principle of self-determination. Although this project failed, the idea of a fragmented or decentralized Russia resurfaced later in various forms. Depending on the era, this strategy was more or less coherent and more or less openly embraced, but it never completely disappeared.

A more elaborate version of this strategy can be found in Zbigniew Brzezinski’s strategic vision, which bears a clear conceptual resemblance to the Polish “Prometheus” (Prometeizm) doctrine of the interwar period. This doctrine, developed under Polish Marshal Józef Piłsudski, aimed to weaken the Soviet Union by encouraging the independence of non-Russian peoples within its borders. Brzezinski, born in Warsaw into a family of diplomats, grew up with these ideas and later served as National Security Advisor under President Jimmy Carter. In his dissertation Russo-Soviet Nationalism (1950), he emphasized that the Soviet Union was not a monolith, but an empire that would disintegrate under the influence of ethnic nationalism—an analysis that closely aligned with the Promethean ideas, although it should be noted that he did not simply adopt them mechanically, but rather built upon them to form his own, broader geopolitical vision.

This intellectual affinity was not limited to his early works; he later maintained a long-standing correspondence with Jerzy Giedroyc (1906–2000), the influential editor-in-chief of the Paris-based Polish émigré journal Kultura. Giedroyc, a fervent proponent of Promethean thought, developed his own doctrine calling on Poland to accept its eastern borders and forge strategic ties with independent states such as Ukraine, Lithuania, and Belarus—a vision he disseminated for decades through his journal and which served as a major source of inspiration for Brzezinski’s geopolitical thinking.

As President Carter’s national security advisor, Brzezinski translated this Promethean vision into concrete policy to some extent, notably through the creation of the Nationalities Working Group in 1978, which sought to stoke ethnic tensions within the Soviet Union. His advocacy for greater attention to the issue of nationalities and his support for dissident movements were direct applications of this thinking. It should be noted, however, that the Nationalities Working Group was not a formal, widely supported political instrument, but rather an initiative by a small group of hawks within the administration. Furthermore, Brzezinski’s view on the Soviet Union’s longevity was nuanced: he did not predict a rapid collapse of the USSR, but emphasized that ethnic tensions ultimately constituted a structural weakness.

When the Nationalities Working Group was established, Brzezinski was strongly influenced by the Franco-Russian historian Alexandre Bennigsen, whose ideas played an important role in the group’s strategic approach. Bennigsen argued that Muslims in the Soviet Union resisted Sovietization and maintained their own distinct identity within the Union. He also attributed a political role to Islam, arguing that most Soviet Muslims, although they knew little about actual Islamic religious practice, retained a solid cultural understanding of it.

The intellectual exchanges between Bennigsen and Brzezinski dated back to before 1978—for example, in 1971 they were both among the authors of an important book on nationality issues in the Soviet Union, indicating a shared interest that existed even before the working group was established. It was, however, Paul B. Henze, a friend of Bennigsen’s, who directly encouraged Brzezinski to establish the Nationalities Working Group; Henze later became its head. The working group, which brought together members of the CIA, the Pentagon, and the State Department, transformed Bennigsen’s theories into a concrete strategy: to promote Islamism in Central Asia in order to provoke a Muslim uprising against the Soviet authorities.

Bennigsen proved prophetic when the Soviet Union began to disintegrate, and especially in the aftermath. Events confirmed his belief that Soviet Muslims had preserved their Islamic identity—albeit without a deep understanding of Islamic practice—despite having been cut off from the rest of the Muslim world since the 1920s. His influence as a Cold War strategist, however, also had consequences for U.S. covert activities in the region. Today, Islam is a powerful political factor in the former Soviet republics, but also—and above all—in Russia itself.

This Western strategy of fragmentation, aimed at stoking nationalism within the USSR, gained new momentum after the launch of the Russian special military operation.

The most recent development in attempts to balkanize Russia is the creation of the Forum of Free Peoples of Post-Russia in May 2022 in Warsaw, Poland. This political alliance, founded by Ukrainian public figure Oleg Magaletsky, brings together representatives from more than thirty regions of the Russian Federation aspiring to independence, including Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, Chechnya, Ingushetia, the Komi Republic, the Urals, Siberia, Kalmykia, and Adygea. The alliance’s goal is to dismantle the current Russian Federation and establish independent, democratic nation-states, viewing Russia as a “prison of peoples” that must be liberated.

At the same time, the League of Free Nations was also founded in 2022, an organization that claims to represent fifteen separatist nationalist movements within Russia. Both organizations share the same fundamental goal—the dismantling of the Russian Federation along ethnic lines—and operate from abroad, notably from Poland and other NATO member states.

Since its creation in May 2022, the Forum has held more than sixteen sessions in various countries, including all major European capitals, the United States, Japan, and Taiwan. Recent sessions include the 15th session, held on March 19, 2025, at the Romanian Parliament in Bucharest, on the theme “The Black Sea: The Frontier of the Future for a Secure and Stable Europe,” and the 16th session, held on June 17 and 18, 2026, in Bratislava, Slovakia, on the theme of the peaceful dissolution of Czechoslovakia (“Velvet Divorce”) and the potential lessons to be drawn from it for a post-Russian space.

The Forum also co-organized the “Third Forum for the Decolonization of Security Thinking in Europe” in Copenhagen on April 28, 2026, and in January 2026, a conference was held at the European Parliament. Sessions were also organized in Oslo and Tallinn.

The Russian government has labeled both alliances as terrorist and extremist organizations. The Forum of Free Peoples of Post-Russia was officially designated a terrorist organization on November 22, 2024, by the Russian Supreme Court, thereby banning its activities on Russian territory. The Court ruled that the Forum calls for participation in hostilities alongside Ukraine, for the commission of terrorist attacks, and for the facilitation of terrorist activities. In January 2025, the FSB added the League of Free Nations to the list of 172 “structural components” of the Forum deemed to be terrorist organizations.

Moscow accuses Western countries, particularly the United States and Poland, of supporting these alliances to dismantle Russia, as evidenced by a June 2022 briefing to the U.S. Congress on the “decolonization of Russia” and the financial and media support provided to the Forum. This development fits perfectly within the old imperialist strategy of fragmentation as formulated by the Prometheus doctrine and Brzezinski’s vision, which has gained new momentum in the post-Russian special operation era.